Policy uncertainty, safe-haven demand, physical inventory dislocation and electrification demand were the dominant themes driving commodity markets in 2025. Gold, silver, and copper have all reached historic highs, reigniting market concerns over resource security and supply-disruption risks. Against a backdrop of escalating geopolitical tensions, persistent fiscal pressures, commodities reasserted their role as both a store of value and a critical input to the global energy transition and industrial economy.
In 2025, almost all of the commodities under Appian’s coverage registered gains, with precious metals and copper exhibiting a nearly one-way trending rally. Silver accelerated its rally in the fourth quarter of 2025, doubling in price compared to the beginning of the year. Gold extended its upward momentum from 2024, climbing another 60% in 2025. Copper prices rose by 40%, supported by macro sentiment and fundamental factors. Even nickel, which faced a supply-demand surplus, broke out of its range in the final two weeks of 2025. Meanwhile, lithium, another battery metal, saw its price double in the second half of 2025 from its annual low, reversing the downtrend that had persisted for over a year.
This inaugural Appian Quarterly Commodities Insights Report examines the fundamentals, key price movements, supply-demand dynamics, and policy developments shaping major commodity markets. Drawing on market data, industry sources, and Appian’s on-the-ground perspective across the mining and metals value chain, this report provides an assessment of recent developments and their implications for 2026 and beyond
We are pleased to present this first edition and look forward to sharing our insights on a quarterly basis as markets continue to evolve.
Fig 1 | Commodities prices in 2025 (indexed, price of Jan 2, 2025 = 100)
Source: LME, GFEX, Appian Capital Advisory
Gold/Silver
In 2025, gold prices surged by more than 60%, and silver prices have more than doubled. The market saw not only central banks but also institutional investors increasing gold purchases. Gold ETF flows shifted from net outflows during 2021‑2024 to net inflows in 2025. From January to November, net inflows into gold ETFs reached 712t, second only to the 893t recorded in 2020, with more than half from North America. These dynamics show that both central banks and investors have widely acknowledged gold’s unique safe‑haven value, particularly amid heightened geopolitical tensions, growing fiscal challenges, and weakening faith in fiat currencies.
Silver prices began to rise following the Liberation Day and accelerated the rally from August onward, ultimately outpacing gold’s annual gain. The gold‑silver ratio retreated from above 100 in April to below 70 in December. In the ongoing gold bull market, silver has exhibited higher volatility and speculation, demonstrating that investment demand has expanded beyond central‑bank reserve accumulation to investor hedging.
Fig 2 | Gold ETF inflows surged in 2025
Source: WGC, Appian Capital Advisory
Copper
LME copper prices surged to a new record in December as more cathode was withdrawn from LME warehouses for delivery to COMEX. Although the US accounts for only about 7% of global copper consumption, more than half of the world’s copper cathode inventory has been stockpiled in the US, tightening availability elsewhere. This trend is likely to persist as long as markets expect higher tariffs moving forward and COMEX premiums remain elevated. Consequently, physical premiums for copper cathode elsewhere have been pushed to record levels to match the premiums in the US. Unlike the regional imbalance in refined‑copper supply, the sustained tightness in the copper concentrate market is broadly acknowledged across the industry. Spot Treatment Charges (“TC”) for imported copper concentrates have remained negative since February 2025. Copper concentrate supply has grown more fragile against the backdrop of rising resource nationalism and accentuated by operations disruptions at Grasberg mine1 and operation disruption at Kamoa-Kakula2 in 2025.
Fig 3 | Copper being stockpiled in COMEX and squeezed other markets
Source: LME, SHFE, COMEX, Appian Capital Advisory
Zinc
As global zinc‑mine supply recovered from early 2025, Chinese smelters resumed zinc production and built-up domestic stocks. According to SMM, China’s refined‑zinc output in Jan-Nov increased by 11% YoY. However, overseas supply remained tight, with ILZSG forecasting a YoY decline in ex‑China refined zinc production in 2025.
The diverging fundamentals between Chinese and ex‑China markets were reflected in LME/SHFE zinc price ratio, which has reached multi-year high level in October 2025. While in December 2025, as China’s exports of refined zinc replenished LME inventories, the overseas tightness has been eased temporarily and the LME/SHFE price spread returned to a normal range.
Looking into 2026, the imbalances in supply across regions may re-emerge. Recently in Q4, Chinese smelters have cut production because spot concentrate TCs declined rapidly and zinc‑concentrate supply growth is expected to slow in 2026 according to International Zinc and Lead Study Group (IZLSG). While on the potential upside of supply, 2026 will also be a crucial year for the ramp‑up of China’s Huoshaoyun lead‑zinc mine and smelter project (560 ktpa zinc), whose commissioning pace will significantly influence the medium‑term supply‑demand balance.
Fig 4 | Spot zinc concentrate TCs plunged in Q4
Source: SMM, Appian Capital Advisory
Nickel
Nickel were mostly traded in a narrow range around US$15,000/t in 2025, due to surplus driven by ongoing capacity expansion in Indonesia, who is dominant in global nickel supply with a share above 60%. However, nickel price silently broke out to above US$16,500/t in late December, in response to the news that Indonesia signaled potential policy changes in 2026, including a cut of nickel ore RKAB quota3 and an adjustment of the benchmark mineral price (HPM) for nickel to introduce royalties on by product4.
On demand side, after two years of rapid substitution by LFP, industry destocking, and the application of medium‑nickel high‑voltage cathodes, demand for nickel from NCM cathodes looks like it has already bottomed out and is on the rise, along with end use demand growth. China’s output of NCM precursors returned to double-digit YoY growth in Q3 2025, after two consecutive halves of decline in H2 2024 and H1 2025. Meanwhile, the share of NCM batteries in total battery installations stabilized at around 18% in 2025, indicating the end of the phase of rapid LFP substitution and that battery‑sector nickel demand is set to recover in the near term.
Nevertheless, being in a surplus market, Indonesian supply growth and policy remain the key price drivers. It will be critical to track the policy implementation and real impact in supply in 2026.
Lithium
Driven by China’s “anti‑involution” push and the suspension of several domestic lepidolite mines due to licensing issues, lithium carbonate prices bottomed out in July 2025, and have doubled from that low, supported by rapidly growing energy‑storage demand.
Lithium‑carbonate prices have shown greater volatility and speculation than base metals, owing partly to demand of concentration in the battery sector, where demand and inventory cycles are highly volatile. Nevertheless, high supply elasticity may cap further price gains. With the rebound in the recent months, the effective capacity utilization of Chinese spodumene‑based producers reached its highest level in three years in Q4 2025 and contributed to total production growth. In 2026, the potential restart of China’s lepidolite mines and the sustainability of strong growth in energy storage demand will be the main risks. Additionally, mines in other regions could also resume production if lithium carbonate prices remain around current high levels.
