INSIGHTS: Electrify everything! Why we should be electrifying everything we possibly can

Heavy duty trucks

Heavy duty trucks are rapidly ramping up for a broad roll-out. Not only is technology rapidly improving, government mandates are making the continued life of combustion engines very difficult.  

In California, the Advanced Clean Truck and Advanced Clean Fleet measures carry a significant stick for both OEMs and large fleets to convert to zero emission as quickly as possible, with most trucks phased out by 2036, and all phased out by 2042. Combined with generous incentives in the HVIP program for vehicles and the Carl Moyer program for charging, the shift towards electric is happening at a rapid pace.

While the range and payload of an electric truck is typically lower than a diesel truck, this may not be the problem it first appears. Recently, the North American Council for Freight Efficiency found that 70% of total loads carried were not near maximum gross vehicle weight, meaning that a reduction in total payload capacity, typically of 2 to 5 tonnes, wasn’t as important as some would have you believe. Moreover, most truck trips are under 300 miles in the US, meaning that even the shorter-range electric tractors available today are more than capable of filling the requirements of many use cases.

For longer haul routes, the coming Megawatt Charging Standard, which will be rolled out commercially next year, and undergoing durability testing by most heavy duty OEMs, will allow for a 70% to 80% charge within a typical 30-minute driver rest break.

In Europe, where truck drivers are required to take rest breaks every 4 hours of driving, and truck speed limits are set around 90km/h, the move to electric can happen relatively easily.  North America has significantly higher truck speeds and longer distances between charging, which may require a slightly longer roll-out timeline. 

What is extremely important to note is that major infrastructure money for truck charging is becoming available at both government and private levels. In North America, Daimler Trucks has partnered with Blackrock and NextGen to form Greenlane, an electric truck charging company with a budget of US$650 million to roll out charging. Similarly in Europe, the big 3 heavy duty OEMs, Traton, Volvo and Daimler have also formed a big budget conglomerate to roll out truck charging.

Of course, no future trucking conversation is complete without mentioning the Tesla Semi. Tesla has said this truck will have 500+ miles of range at a fully-loaded 82,000lb gross vehicle mass in US spec and also Megawatt charging capabilities. These specs have the potential to transform electric trucking from low-mileage, day-hauling-only, to long-haul-capable as the infrastructure rolls out.

As freight and logistics is an industry that has a very wide variety of use cases, different battery types can be used depending on the requirement. We’re seeing a significant shift away from Lithium-ion NMC batteries to Lithium-ion LFP-type chemistries which offer significantly longer battery life at the expense of energy density (and hence payload). In the future, we see the opportunity for solid state batteries to make a significant contribution as weight decreases and cycle life improves.

Short trip VTOL and aviation

Aviation and electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing (VTOL) craft are a rather tricky segment to electrify. Aircraft need low weight to take off and stay in the air for hours on end; not easy with heavy batteries.

Thus, these vehicles need the lightest, most power-dense batteries available. Lithium-ion NMC cells are the most obvious choice today, however, they’re still nowhere near good enough for anything beyond a range of 100 to 150 nautical miles, which e-VTOL and light aircraft have now achieved.  However, it is likely that as they move to power-dense solid state batteries, this will significantly improve the range potential, and it’s likely at that point we should see electric commercial light aviation become a reality. 

Charging, on the other hand, appears to be less of a problem as the Megawatt Charging Standard is well-placed to take over the charging needs of aviation.

Large jets continue to be a conundrum. While hydrogen has been suggested, the size, weight and shape of the tanks make them difficult to incorporate into aerospace design, and other ideas, beyond bio-fuels, are meeting difficulties.

Recreational vehicles

This is a very wide ranging sector, however the large RV-type campers that are popular in the US are more in line with the changes in buses and heavy duty vehicles. Here we discuss small boats, jet skis, off-road motorcycles and snowmobiles, which today, are beginning to offer more options.

In the last year all of these segments have seen new, early stage entrants, which offer good performance at the expense of range and run time.

Another reason that electrifying these vehicles is becoming more common is because electric vehicles are beginning to offer Vehicle to Load (V2L) capabilities. A Ford F150 Lightning, a typical truck used to tow many of these vehicles in North America, offers Level 2 charging capabilities from the truck, allowing them to return to the water and trails after a couple hours of charging.

As we see more pickups and SUVs equipped with V2L capability, our expectation is that this will be a significant driver of the recreational electric vehicle market.

Motorcycles and ultra-small vehicles

Motorcycles and small 3-wheel vehicles such as typically seen in Asia, have seen an explosion of EV adoption in recent years. Due to a very significant decrease in the cost of batteries and much lower running costs, millions of new vehicles are being added to the roads every year.

Furthermore, new business ideas, such as the Gogoro battery swapping system, have proven very popular for people who live in apartments and do not have an easy way to charge their motorcycle.

In developed countries, where motorcycles are less popular, uptake has been slower. That said, ultra-small vehicles, such as the Citroen Ami in Europe and Wuling Hong Guong Mini in China, have proven to be very popular.

With Japanese motorcycle manufacturers announcing a battery swapping system to rival Gogoro, we believe that continued strong growth is inevitable.

Medium duty shuttle and school buses

This is another area where significant progress has been made, with much more still to come.  Currently these electric buses are much more expensive than their gas and diesel counterparts, however there are policies and legislation that will significantly increase growth.

In the US, municipal transit authorities, one of the biggest purchasers of shuttle buses, are subsidized by the federal government, offsetting up to 80% of the capital cost of the bus, plus any associated equipment such as chargers. Transit authorities are responsible for the remaining 20%, plus operational costs. As electric buses have a high capital cost, and low operational cost, municipalities can save tens of thousands of dollars annually by going EV. Combine this with recently announced IRA incentives and you’ve got a recipe for a very bright future.

Typically, in North America, shuttle buses are built on a medium duty truck chassis, like the Ford F450. Compared to trucks carrying freight, buses tend not to come as close to maximum load capacity, and most duty cycles are under 150 miles per day, which makes them ideal candidates for electrification.

Mining equipment

Mining trucks and equipment are huge consumers of energy, and in fact in Australia, large mining trucks use more diesel annually than the country’s on-road trucking fleet.  

As most mines have electricity on site, electrifying more of the equipment is a natural way forward.

In the past, underground mines have needed exceptionally large ventilation systems for diesel vehicles to operate in enclosed conditions, sometimes miles below the surface. By electrifying vehicles, underground mines can reduce the size of their ventilation systems by up to 90%, generating huge cost savings. This is a use case where adopting electric vehicles greatly reduces the cost of infrastructure outside of the vehicle, and it’s a key reason why mining operations are at the forefront of the electric vehicle revolution.

As weight is typically not an issue in mining applications, Lithium-ion batteries with Iron cathode, will likely best balance cost and performance in these applications, while battery swapping is also a technology which is currently being used in this industry.

Trains

Battery electric trains offer huge potential in several use cases. The first is to replace diesel power where lines are only partially electrified. When operating with overhead electrified wires, these trains draw current to both power the train and charge the battery. When the electric line ends, the train switches to battery power. In Germany, Niederbarnimer Railway will introduce 31 new two-car electric passenger trains in 2024; and in 2025 Amtrak will introduce 15 engines that primarily use battery electric power, but also have a diesel engine as a back-up.

For freight routes, recent analysis by Nature Energy has shown that many large, long-haul freight trains can be electrified by adopting dedicated large battery boxcars, with batteries as large as 14MW.  This is enough to power a four engine, 100 freight car train for 240 kilometers, about the distance that many routes would typically go before requiring a stop.  At this point, depleted battery box cars can be swapped out for another fully charged example.

Another opportunity with rail is to electrify shunting or switching locomotives that operate only in railway yards. When not in use, these can either be fast or slow charged, depending on upcoming requirements. As these are typically in urban or greater urban areas, the opportunity and benefit to lower pollution is very significant.

As added weight is often an added benefit to trains, the heavier Lithium-ion Iron cathode batteries have great potential.

Ships and ferries

While ships may seem an incredibly difficult nut to electrify, large ferries that do short hauls are actually good candidates for electrification. Several large ferries which typically do journeys under 30 miles have already been converted in Norway and Canada, and have generated huge operational cost savings.

However, large ocean-going ships really are difficult. Their massive size and huge energy requirements means that it will be a while before viable alternatives are available.

What does all this mean?

What is really apparent is that the “Electrify Everything!” mandate is spreading to almost every transportation application that one can think of. The promise of zero emissions, high torque and low operating costs make for a compelling business case in almost all applications. Not only do vehicles cost less to run, they often do the job much better.

As Lithium-ion battery technology continues to improve, and new chemistries target specific niches, more opportunities are opened up. Applications that were seen as difficult 5 years ago are today being researched and trialled in depth.

As stricter government mandates, changing consumer preference and stronger company ESG policies accelerate the shift to vehicle electrification, the opportunity is immense.  

What that means is a cleaner environment aligning with an economic opportunity that we haven’t seen in transportation for over 100 years, and that’s something to be very excited about.